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Robert Hirsch: I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts (13 posts)

  1. chrisc
    Member

    I'm not quite sure what to make of this... a memo from Robert Hirsch to "a Who’s Who of the peak movement, including retired petroleum geologist Colin Campbell; investment banker Matt Simmons; Swedish peak-oil scholar Kjell Aleklett; and Steve Andrews, director of the U.S. Association for the Study of Peak Oil", reprinted by the WSJ:

    TO THE PEAK OIL COMMUNITY:

    The world is in the midst of the most severe financial crisis in most of our lifetimes. The economic damage that has already been wrought is considerable, and we have yet to see the bottom or the turnaround. Against this background, I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply. The motivation is simple: By minimizing our efforts in the near term, we may not add fuel to the economic fires that are already burning so fiercely.

    We are all aware of how disoriented governments and business are right now. Our leaders, leaders-to-be, and best minds are disoriented and seeking pathways out of the current morass. The public is in a quiet panic mode — those who were reasonably well off are less well of, and their options for action are limited. Those that have lost their jobs and/or homes are desperate. Businesses and the markets are in what might be called a free fall. If the realization of peak oil along with its disastrous financial implications was added to the existing mix of troubles, the added trauma could be unthinkable.

    Like many of you, I’ve devoted my recent efforts to trying to wake the public and governments to the impending horrors of peak oil. As much as that awaking is urgently needed, continuing to press forward now is almost certainly not in the broader interest.

    Many may be tempted to directly challenge the recent IEA World Energy Outlook. I am among those who were very disappointed. Pressing those concerns at this time might further the peak oil “cause,” but it could well do much more damage than any of us really intend.

    Please keep up your studies and thinking, because helping the world realize the dangers of peak oil is an absolute must. In the near term, keeping relatively quiet is likely the better part of valor.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/11/...

    Posted 8 years ago #
  2. chrisc
    Member

    I was about to highlight some bits and add a comment above but I was bitten by the 5min editing window...

    I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply.

    If the realization of peak oil along with its disastrous financial implications was added to the existing mix of troubles, the added trauma could be unthinkable.

    It's not as if Peak Oil and economic collapse is all we are facing, what about climate change the environment, mass extinctions etc... Not to mention the whole question of Empire... we shouldn't be trying to minimize our efforts to awaken the world on the contrary now is the time we should be maximizing our efforts...

    Posted 8 years ago #
  3. chrisc
    Member

    Some of the conclusions of the Hirsch report, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management from February 2005, taken from the Wikipedia page on it, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report :

    • Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.

      • 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
      • A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
      • Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.

    And the first of it's three scenarios:

    • Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.

    So, what's going on here? Fear of the effects of this: "the added trauma could be unthinkable"?

    Posted 8 years ago #
  4. truthmover
    Administrator

    I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply. ... By minimizing our efforts in the near term, we may not add fuel to the economic fires that are already burning so fiercely.

    This really is very odd. That statement is not logical. How does a movement exist that minimizes its efforts at promoting it's key issue? And is he suggesting that a social movement hit pause because the subject makes people fearful who might then sell their stocks?

    Why would someone so intelligent write such utter drivel? Is this yet another controlled burnout?

    Pitiful and worthy of public scorn.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  5. mark
    Member

    An essay by Mike Ruppert about Hirsch's capitulation:

    http://mikeruppert.blogspot.com/2008/11/understand...

    Posted 8 years ago #
  6. truthmod
    Administrator

    Nice to see a link to this thread on Ruppert's blog. I always wondered if he even knew we existed.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  7. mrsp
    Member

    I could be wrong but some people refuse to evolve. The sooner we see; we can find out where we're going.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  8. mrsp
    Member

    Wait a minute...this could be reverse psychology. Hmmmm.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  9. chrisc
    Member

    Nice to see a link to this thread on Ruppert's blog. I always wondered if he even knew we existed.

    That part of the post, after his sig:

    MCR ***********...

    Appears to be written by JO.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  10. truthmod
    Administrator

    Appears to be written by JO.

    Yeah, I noticed that, but I assume MCR would at least now know of TruthMove.

    I really don't get Hirsch's logic. I think we've had, and will continue to have, enough difficulty in breaching people's cognitive dissonance and denial on issues such as Peak Oil and the environmental crises, that it makes no sense to tone down our efforts. I also believe that taking full stock of our predicament and then creating a plan of action is the only reasonable way to go.

    We all fear a chaotic collapse, on some level, but putting off dealing with reality will only make that collapse more harsh.

    In my dream world, Obama would do a nationally televised address where he actually explains the reality of PO, global warming, mass extinction, etc., with facts and graphs. He would also lay out a plan of action and assure people that we're going to deal with these crises in an open, moral way.

    While the financial crisis may be devastating many people's economic outlook, the real solutions to the crisis could only come from consciousness of our dire environmental and resource outlook.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  11. mark
    Member

    You probably will have to wait for President Kucinich to get that nationally televised address.

    For what it's worth, you can send your suggestion to the incoming team at www.change.gov

    But without sending a large contribution along with the suggestion it is unlikely anyone in a decision making capacity will read it.

    The day a "president" acknowledges the scale of the environment, energy and economic crises is the day the Dow and other indices take a worse nosedive than they have experienced this fall (pun intended).

    Posted 8 years ago #
  12. emanuel
    Member

    That truthmove has been linked on Mike's blog may mean a large influx of new members here. What I value so much about truthmove is that it has not been spoiled by the nonsense and crazy-making of the disinfo folks. I hope the administrators continue to screen new members carefully. Don't get caught up when they start accusing you of "censorship." This is not a public forum... or at least this my impression.

    Emanuel

    Posted 8 years ago #
  13. truthmod
    Administrator

    Don't worry, we are not shy about banning people who aren't here to forward the effectiveness of the movement.

    Posted 8 years ago #

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