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Why the Internet’s biggest conspiracy theories don’t make mathematical sense (2 posts)

  1. truthmod
    Administrator

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/...

    If NASA really faked the moon landing in 1969, about 411,000 people would have worked together to keep that information from the public, and the whole thing would have been exposed about four years later, according to an Oxford researcher who has found a mathematical way to examine the viability of conspiracy theories.

    David Robert Grimes is a physicist and cancer researcher, but he also writes science pieces for the Irish Times and the Guardian. As a science writer, he’s used to being contacted by people who adhere to science-based conspiracy theories, which generally involve accusing the scientific community at large of colluding on fake data for nefarious purposes, Oxford University said in a release about Grimes’s new paper, published in PLOS this week.

    To help demonstrate the viability (or lack thereof) of several well-known conspiracy theories, Grimes wrote an equation to show just how hard it would be to keep large-scale conspiracies — if they were true — a secret.

    “For a conspiracy of even a few thousand actors, intrinsic failure would arise within decades. For hundreds of thousands, such failure would be assured within less than half a decade,” Grimes concluded. In other words: bad news for a lot of the Internet’s most persistent conspiracies.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  2. BrianG
    Member

    What collusion? Does the video technician know that the video he is optimizing is faked? Does the caterer know the whole op is a lie? Does the communications tech know that the audio is coming from a sound stage?

    Where in the world does he get 400,000 cognizant co-conspirators?

    It's really too bad that I have to explain (not to present company but to lurkers) that the above in no way advocates "faked moon landing" theories.

    Posted 8 years ago #

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