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Peak oil: Why is it so difficult to explain/understand? (9 posts)

1. truthmod
   Administrator

   http://www.energybulletin.net/39308.html

   After several years of partial success in explaining the physics-based phenomenon sometimes known as “Peak Oil”, this author has come to one conclusion: Peak Oil is difficult to explain, and it is difficult for most people to understand.

   Now, some folks make the conscious choice to avoid considering a concept like Peak Oil because it might imply future hardship or a change in lifestyle, and they’d rather dwell on “positive” matters. Others would consider the acceptance of Peak Oil to be defeatist – ie, a surrender of man’s great ingenuity and/or his ability control his own destiny. Make no mistake about it, this author has a high regard for the power of positive thinking, for man’s ingenuity and for his ability to help influence his destiny.

   For others, the difficulty with Peak Oil might be a subconscious one. Theories such as “cognitive dissonance” and “consensus trance” have been advanced, and these are likely manifestations of what is sometimes referred to as “crowd behavior”.

   Posted 16 years ago #
2. giveback
   

   Peak Oil is not a thought of a winner.

   Peak Oil has no context most people would care to investigate.

   Peak Oil is doomy.

   Peak Oil will be taken care of by the geniuses.

   Peak Oil is against a growth economy.

   Peak Oil just cannot really happen.

   Culture of denial, where truth is there to be manipulated for the good feelings. We're higher than a kite on oil.

   Posted 16 years ago #
3. chrisc
   Member

   All the above, plus the disinformation and misinformation...

   An example of this, that I have yet to listen to, would appear to be this presentation by BP to the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas:

   Press release - BP's View on Peak Oil (Meeting Jan 16 2008) - All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil (APPGOPO)

   London, 17th January 2008 - An all-party group of MPs last night heard that if global oil production peaks in coming decades it will be because of declining demand, not supply. "I believe there is a realistic possibility that world oil production will peak within the next generation as a result of peaking demand," BP Special Economic Advisor Peter Davies told the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas (APPGOPO). He added, ""There's a distinct possibility that global oil consumption could peak as a result of climate policies."

   Davies' optimism was challenged by former Shell & BP geologist Jeremy Leggett who suggested that the risk of an early peak in global oil production was much greater than BP believed. Also challenging BP's view, Chair of APPGOPO John Hemming MP said that the possibility of an early peak in global oil production should be taken seriously because of uncertainty about stated reserves in OPEC countries. Hemming described peak oil as a "live issue", and said that massive increases in stated OPEC reserves in the 1980s were not reliable.

   Davies said that it was possible to boost oil production to 100 million barrels a day. This contrasts with the view of other industry figures such as the Chief Executive of Total, Christophe de Margerie, and ConocoPhillips Chief Executive, James Mulva, who have both recently suggested that it will be very hard to reach that level of production. Davies stated that given appropriate investment, 100 million barrels a day could be exceeded. "This is achievable in resource terms," Davies said, "but it does come down to how much investment is going to take place."

   Listen to the full audio (80bm mp3, 1.5hours) of the event at the following link :

   http://www.appgopo.org.uk/events/03_160108/APPGOPO...

   Found at http://www.appgopo.org.uk/index.php?option=com_con...

   Posted 16 years ago #
4. truthmod
   Administrator

   Wall Street Journal profile on a Peak Oiler:

   http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB12012893988...

   In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made Mr. Wissner of Middleville Stocks Up on Rice, Gold; No Faith in a 'Techno Fix'

   It was around midnight one evening in November when Aaron Wissner shot up in bed, jolted awake by a fear: He wasn't fully ready for the day when the world starts running low on oil.

   Yes, he had tripled the size of the garden in front of the tidy white-clapboard house he shares with his wife and infant son. He had stacked bags of rice in his new pantry, stashed gold valued at $8,000 in his safe-deposit box and doubled the size of the propane tank in his yard.

   "But I felt panicky, like I needed more insurance," he says. So the 38-year-old middle-school computer teacher put on his jacket and drove to an all-night gas station, where he filled three, five-gallon jugs with gasoline.

   Posted 16 years ago #
5. chrisc
   Member

   Interesting article, what it starting to get to me about some people that seem to only focus on Peak Oil is that they often fail to see the role of imperialism and that it's going to be the other parts of the world that suffer first and suffer far more... Who is going to be priced out of the market first?

   what would happen if oil grew so scarce that gas prices soared to $10 a gallon or more? Hands shot up. "We'd ride horses," said one boy. "We'd pick all our crops by hand and ride bikes," offered a second.

   In the UK unleaded petrol costs about £1.05 a litre, US Gal = 4.546 litres and £1.00 =$1.98 so we already pay $9.45 a gallon... and still there are lots of new SUV's on the streets and people don't seem to be doing much less mileage, this point was made by David Strahan in this Electric Politics interview last August: http://www.electricpolitics.com/podcast/2007/08/ye...

   Despite this it's still generally cheaper to drive than use public transport, trains are very expensive, coaches are a lot cheaper but local buses cost a lot.

   It perhaps isn't going to hit people till there are shortages and they can't fill up their tanks whatever they are prepared to pay... I expect prices of petrol here to hit £2 a litre ($20 a gallon) within a couple of years at most.

   Posted 16 years ago #
6. truthmod
   Administrator

   $5 or $10/gallon here in America sounds unthinkable to most people. So many are barely scraping by even as it is with (relatively) cheap gas. We need a wake up call though, I hope gas does up that high.

   Posted 16 years ago #
7. chrisc
   Member

   Interesting, positive, 5min audio about the WSJ article:

   Peak Oil Check-In: Peak oil as a personal motivator Peak oil seems to motivate people to change how they live their lives, more so than the apparently equally serious challenge of climate change. Why is that?
   http://www.radio4all.net/proginfo.php?id=26346

   Posted 16 years ago #
8. truthmod
   Administrator

   Oil crisis ahead? 'Peakniks' build for future
   West Lake Hills home will have energy, water, food while skipping fossil fuels.
   http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories...

   Peak-Oilers Put Money Where Mouths Are
   Posted by Jeffrey Ball

   The peak-oil debate no longer is a matter just of the planet’s future. Now it’s the subject of a one-sided $100,000 bet.
   http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/02/...

   Posted 16 years ago #
9. truthmod
   Administrator

   Lots of coverage on PO in the WSJ lately:

   Peak Oil: Simmons v. Saudis, Round Two
   http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/02/...

   Are Saudi Arabia’s massive oil fields in great shape—or falling apart? Can Saudi Aramco help slake the globe’s soaring energy thirst far into the century—or has that ability already peaked?

   Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories
   http://www.theoildrum.com/files/basecase.gif

   Posted 16 years ago #

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