Ice loss in Antarctica increased by 75 percent in the last 10 years due to a speed-up in the flow of its glaciers and is now nearly as great as that observed in Greenland, according to a new, comprehensive study by NASA and university scientists.
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Antarctic Ice Loss Speeds Up, Nearly Matches Greenland Loss (9 posts)
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Posted 16 years ago #
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I've read and seen a documentary indicating that if any majority of the ice that comprises Greenland melts, it would be sufficient to shut down the Gulf Stream, and throw the globe into an ice age in the span of 5 - 10 years. This was also the premise of the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow." Crappy movie. But it drove the point home.
This speculation is based on the fact that this has occurred at least two other times in our history, and that the shutdown of ocean currents was in each case preceded by an increase in global temperature resulting in the melting of a large body of ice that lowered the salinity of the ocean, changing its density, and causing an interruption in ocean currents. Each of these was caused by the melting of ice in the north pacific, which of course is where Greenland is located.
Get ready to move to Oaxaca.
Posted 16 years ago # -
I have heard some people who don't think the Gulf stream shutting down is an immediate worry, for example:
What happens as the Earth heats up?
British author and activist Mark Lynas set out to answer those questions...
Regarding the Gulf Stream - last spring you told a group in Scotland that cool weather there was likely a sign of the Gulf Stream weakening. But this year, winter hardly came to Europe, so far. Wont' critics says this is a contradiction?
[Mark explains the "jury is still out" about the impact of melting arctic freshwater on the Atlantic Conveyor System. Although studies have shown an increase in the freshwater content, so far the ocean currents (and thus the weather) have not changed, and we don't know why - or when the warming waters might be impacted.]
Text: http://www.ecoshock.org/2007/01/mark-lynas-six-deg...
Audio: http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate/ES_Mark_...
And:
11 minute interview with Dr. Andrew Weaver, lead author of the "future predictions" section of the IPCC report released in February in Paris.
Dr. Weaver says there is some good news: he was directly involved in wrapping up oceans research which indicates a catastrophic failure of the Atlantic Converyor Belt, (often called the "Gulf Stream") is VERY UNLIKELY to happen this century. There were worries that melting Arctic Ice, and Greenland ice, could reduce salinity in the ocean current that makes the U.S. Northeast, Britain, and Northern Europe habitable. Apparently, despite massive Arctic melts, so far the current research (literally) indicates we shouldn't be worried about this in the near term.
Text: http://www.ecoshock.org/2007/02/ipcc-future-foreca...
Audio: http://www.ecoshock.org/cfro/2007/ES_Andrew_Weaver...
So, I'm less worried about getting covered with an ice sheet than I was.. ;-)
Posted 16 years ago # -
Thanks for the info. Although this might suggest that we need not worry for the foreseeable future, the historical record is still clear that there have been at least two previous times in our history when this more than likely occurred. I suppose my fear is based in how well climate scientists really understand the nature of this occurrence. Also, I would say that our concern here for the environment is not confined to what will occur only in our lifetimes. If this is going to make my grandchildren have to move to Ecuador, I'm still concerned.
Posted 16 years ago # -
If this is going to make my grandchildren have to move to Ecuador, I'm still concerned.
Sure, of course, Polar Cities rather than Ecuador might be the direction they have to go in :-/
You know the story. Climate change is for real. In the future, maybe in 50 years, maybe in 100 years, maybe in 300 years, maybe even not until 1000 more years, but someday, I believe, humankind will need to have sustainable polar retreats --POLAR CITIES -- to house remnants of humankind who might be able to survive the coming big global warming event. Here's a date to think about: 2121 A.D.
http://climatechange3000.blogspot.com/Posted 16 years ago # -
"Tipping point" on horizon for Greenland ice
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080204/sc_nm/climate_...
Global warming this century could trigger a runaway thaw of Greenland's ice sheet and other abrupt shifts such as a dieback of the Amazon rainforest, scientists said on Monday.
They urged governments to be more aware of "tipping points" in nature, tiny shifts that can bring big and almost always damaging changes such as a melt of Arctic summer sea ice or a collapse of the Indian monsoon.
"Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change," the scientists at British, German and U.S. institutes wrote in a report saying there were many little-understood thresholds in nature.
Posted 16 years ago # -
It's really hard to see how tipping points like this won't be met -- I can't see how all the oil and gas that can be pumped out of the ground won't be burnt and then there is the coal and with plans like this:
[US] Air Force officials have laid out an ambitious plan to develop a privately financed coal-to-diesel plant at Malmstrom air base within the next four years at a cost of $1 billion to $4 billion.
The plant, which would be among the first of its kind in the nation, would use a technology perfected in Nazi Germany to turn coal into synthetic fuels, including jet fuel for use by the Air Force.
By 2016, the Air Force wants to use a synthetic jet fuel blend for up to 50 percent of the fuel used by its domestic fleet. That would require roughly 400 million gallons of coal-based fuel annually.
It seems clear that lots and lot of coal will also go up in smoke... the only hope for the climate it would seem is an early peak in coal, this is something Richard Heinberg is looking at and doing a book on: http://globalpublicmedia.com/heinberg_museletter19... and with coal prices tripling: http://globalpublicmedia.com/coal_triples perhaps the market has realised that there isn't as much as people thought... see, The great coal hole - http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=116
More on fossil fuels and climate change in the paper from James E Hansen: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/notyet/submitted_Kh...
Posted 16 years ago # -
The source for the tipping point article: http://researchpages.net/media/resources/2008/02/0... found via: http://www.energybulletin.net/39914.html
I've not read this yet... the conclusion starts with:
Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. The greatest threats are tipping the Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland ice sheet, and at least five other elements could surprise us by exhibiting a nearby tipping point.
:-/
Posted 16 years ago # -
The write up on the authors blog seems easier to read: http://researchpages.net/ESMG/people/tim-lenton/ti...
In contains this on the gulf stream:
Despite widespread misconceptions that the Gulf Stream will switch off it will instead be redirected Southward past Spain as part of the North Atlantic Gyre circulation.
Posted 16 years ago #
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